China's Technology Landscape
China has emerged as a major technology power through decades of state-directed industrial policy, massive research investment, and a strategic push for self-reliance in critical technologies. The country's technological evolution has drawn global scrutiny[^c1], intensified by US-China strategic competition that has reshaped global supply chains across multiple sectors.
Since the launch of Made in China 2025, the country has pursued dominance across ten priority sectors including next-generation information technology, [[China Electric Vehicle Industry|electric vehicles]], aerospace, and semiconductors. By some estimates, China has invested over $250 billion in semiconductor manufacturing since 2019[^c2] and achieved approximately 86% of the plan's goals[^c3]. China became the world's largest R&D spender in 2024 at $785.9 billion in PPP-adjusted terms[^c4], and Chinese institutions account for more than half of top applied science publications in the Nature Index. The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) reinforced this trajectory with AI as its central focus, targeting a 10 trillion yuan AI sector valuation by 2030[^c12].
US export controls have accelerated rather than halted China's push for domestic alternatives. Nvidia's advanced AI chip market share in China dropped to near zero, with its chief executive stating the company has been "100% excluded"[^c10]. China's overall semiconductor self-sufficiency rate grew from 15% in 2019 to 24.3% by 2025, with Morgan Stanley projecting further growth to 32% by 2028[^c11], while AI chip self-sufficiency reached 41% by 2025, projected to reach 86% by 2030[^c14]. Beijing has also begun proactively blocking foreign chips, halting imports of Nvidia's RTX 5090D V2 in May 2026[^c15]. However, the country remains at least five years behind TSMC in logic chip manufacturing.
The central government frames technological self-reliance as a response to external pressure, arguing that "the more foreign forces suppress us, the more we must persist in independent innovation"[^c7]. Beijing's goal is an "independent and controllable" technology ecosystem[^c8], pursued across chips, AI frameworks, operating systems, satellite navigation, and quantum computing.
The global technology landscape is fragmenting as a result of these dynamics. Analysts describe a shift from economic interdependence to selective decoupling across critical sectors[^c5], with experts warning that "a new kind of iron curtain" is descending in technology[^c6]. International organizations have warned that the divergence is creating a dual-track global science system with separate standards, journals, and talent flows[^c13]. China and Russia have formalized this trajectory, signing 40 bilateral agreements across AI, quantum computing, space, and biotechnology in May 2026 that analysts described as "the architecture of an alternative global science order"[^c16]. Bain & Company concluded that "the only real hedge against unpredictable shocks to the system is continued regionalization or even nationalization"[^c9].